Every time when my readers ask me the questions about payouts in Matka, I usually begin my reply with the following question: why the payout rate for Patti is 150 times your bet while the payout for Single is only 9 times? The first thought of the majority of readers is that the operators are generous towards Pattis and miserly to Singles. However, analyzing the payout rates of Pattis and Singles on the panels in Mumbai chawls and fatafatkolkata.net for many years, I can state that the difference lies not in generosity or miserliness, but in pure maths of probabilities.

A Brief Recap of Terminology

First, let me remind you what the two terms mean if you do not know them yet. Single is a one-digit number from 0 to 9 and Patti is the combination of 3 digits chosen among 220 available Pattis. On each draw, the Matka market selects the Single and the Patti, though the latter defines the former, because the Single is simply the last digit of the Patti.

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The Difference in Probability of Hitting a Single or a Patti

It is here we can find the core difference between these two options, which defines the difference in payout rates. Since the probability of hitting a certain Single is 1 in 10 (there are 10 Singles), the probability of hitting a certain Patti is 1 in 220 (as there are 220 Pattis). Comparing these two values, we can see that hitting the Patti is 22 times more difficult than hitting the Single. Hence, the payout should be somehow compensated, otherwise, no one would play Patti at all.

The Payout Logic

The payout logic in most of the games is based on the following formula – the higher is the probability of the event, the lower is the payout. This is true to most of the number games which are considered gambling under the international law, and Matka is no exception. The payout formula in most cases is proportional to the inverse of the probability minus the operator's share in the form of commission. Let me illustrate this on examples:

for the Single: the probability is 1 in 10, hence the payout is 10x. But the operators usually give 9x payout, which means that their share is 10 percent; for the Single Patti: the probability is roughly 1 in 120, so the payout would be 120x. But the operators usually give 140x or 150x, because the operators try to attract the volume of bets on Pattis; for the Double Patti: the rarity is greater, as there are 90 DPs in the system, so the payout is 280x-300x; for the Triple Patti: the rarity is the greatest, since there are only 10 TPs in the system, therefore the payout is 700x or even 1000x in some markets. As we can see, the payout is getting higher with the rarity of the underlying event. No magic, just maths.

Why the Single Cannot Pay More Than 9x or 10x

The usual question of the beginner gamblers is the following – why the operators do not pay 50x on the Singles? The answer is simple. If the operators would pay 50x on 1-in-10 event, they would lose their money rapidly. For the operator to earn money, the average payout per draw must be less than the money collected per draw. With 10 Singles, the operators can pay only 9x in case if each Single attracts the same volume of bets, keeping 1 part of the money for themselves.

Why a Patti Can Pay 150x and Even More Comfortably

Everything becomes totally different when we speak about Pattis. The probability of hitting the Patti is so low that the operators can afford paying 140x or 150x without any problems. As most of the money collected from losing Pattis belongs to the operator, and only a little part of it goes back as the payout to the winner, the payout rate in most of Indian Matka markets, including those observed on fatafatkolkata.net, remains the same. It is not artificial regulation by some central authority, but just the result of the same probability maths working in the whole system.

The Logic of Triple Patti Payouts

A special attention should be paid to the Triple Patti, because of unusually high payout rate. You can get 700x, 850x or even 1000x for winning TP. Some people wonder why the operators can afford such a payout. The answer is again the probability maths. Of course, out of 1000 numbers only 10 are TPs. So the raw probability is 1 in 100 and effective probability in Patti universe is 1 in 220. Taking into account the real collection volume, the operators manage to preserve their profit margin. It is just the marketing instrument which helps them attracting money, but it does not jeopardize the margin in the long run.

A Practical Example

Let me illustrate this logic with an example. Assume that 1000 followers put Rs. 100 on each of the available Singles. We have a total sum of Rs. 1,00,000. When the winning Single is announced, about 100 people out of them manage to guess the right number in case of equal distribution of bets. They receive Rs. 900 each, making the total sum Rs. 90,000. The operators keep Rs. 10,000. Now, the same 1000 people bet Rs. 100 each on different Pattis. Only 4 or 5 people manage to guess the right Patti. They receive Rs. 14,000 each, making the total sum Rs. 70,000. The operators keep Rs. 30,000. Though Patti looks like paying more to a single winner, the operators' profit margin is bigger due to rarity of the winners.

Why the Logic Has Not Changed

The reason why the payout rates have not changed almost at all since the times of 1970s despite the closure of Worli Matka and emergence of Kalyan and Milan markets is that the probability has not changed in any way. There are still 10 Singles, 220 Pattis, and 10 Triple Pattis. Till the moment they remain the same, the payout structure cannot change either. Any operator trying to pay more than usual will soon go broke while any operator who pays less will soon lose his customers to the competing operator.

Conclusion

Patti pays more than Single only because it is much rarer to land. The probability of landing a Single is 1 in 10, and the payout is approximately 9x, while the probability of hitting Patti is 1 in 220, and the payout depends on the kind of Patti and goes from 140x to 1000x. As always, this article is aimed at revealing the mathematical logic of the system.